… Expect COVID-19 to cause a global recession in 2020.
What impact is COVID-19 having on the global economy? Here is what experts have to say…
- “Low gasoline prices don’t do much for you if schools are closed, you cancel your trip or you’re working from home because of the virus.” — Daniel Yergin, energy historian and Vice Chairman of HIS
- “Millions of workers in these countries are facing the bleak prospect of losing their jobs. Governments are considering and rolling out large stimulus packages to avert a sharp downturn of their economies which could potentially plunge the global economy into a deep recession. In the worst-case scenario, the world economy could contract by 0.9 per cent in 2020.” – UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA)
- “My hope is this – if we have a second wave, we will have a better public health response and that that response will, in turn, teach large groups of people that they do have that self-efficacy, that they have some resilience and that they will know how to handle it.” – Dr. Carl Weems Ph.D
- “We’re going to lose a chunk of activity, and then we’ll grow out of it. That’s the good news. But are we going to boom out of it or crawl out of it? Crawling is looking more likely.” — Julia Coronado, President of MacroPolicy Perspectives
- “There are no winners here. Only degrees of losing.” — Charles O’Shea, Lead Retail Analyst, Moody’s
- “What I wanted to mention is that maybe what makes the second wave a little easier to digest is that we anticipate the probability that it can happen again. And so that does mentally prepare us. It allows us to – we’ve lived in many ways and when I think about students and families through a very disruptive, quick and difficult period – so in some ways, we kind of have a sense of what that worst-case scenario is.” -Dr. Olga Acosta Price
- “Last week we concluded that the COVID-19 shock would produce a global recession as nearly all of the world contracts over the three months between February and April. There is no longer doubt that the longest global expansion on record will end this quarter. The key outlook issue now is gauging the depth and the duration of the 2020 recession.” – Bruce Kasman, Head Of Global Economic Research, JP Morgan
- “We must not lose sight how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development.” – Elliot Harris UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development
- “If you’re asking for when the financial markets see peak virus, I think it’ll be about a month from now.” — Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management
- “It’s temporary, but it’s a tornado-like headwind, so it’s going to be powerful for a period of time.” — Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer for global fixed income at BlackRock
- “The evolving news on COVID-19 has triggered ‘forecast leap frogging,’ with economists and strategists repeatedly lowering their forecasts. Among the big three economies, the U.S. and the euro area will see negative growth, while Chinese growth is expected to come in at a paltry 1.5%. Our first piece on the virus shock was titled ‘bad or worse’; now we amend that to ‘really bad or much worse.’ We now expect COVID-19 to cause a global recession in 2020, of similar magnitude to the recessions of 1982 and 2009.” – Ethan Harris, Head Of Global Economics at BofA.